County and Municipal Government in North Carolina, Second Edition, 2014 (E-book)

An Introduction to Revenue Forecasting

Chapter number: 18
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County and Municipal Government in North Carolina

Introduction / 293

Reasons for Revenue Forecasting / 294
Improved Financial Management / 294
Strategic Thinking / 294
Types of Revenue Forecasts / 295
Recommended Process for Revenue Forecasting / 295
Step 1: Create a Revenue Manual / 295
Step 2: Estimate Major Revenue Sources / 296
Step 3: Departmental Revenue Forecasts / 296
Step 4: Update Estimates / 297
Forecasting Methods / 297
Qualitative Methods / 298
Judgmental Forecasting / 298
Consensus Forecasting / 298
Strengths of Qualitative Forecasting / 298
Weaknesses of Qualitative Forecasting / 298
Quantitative Methods / 299
Formula-Based Projections / 299
Strengths and Weaknesses of Formula-
Based Projections / 299
Trend Analysis / 299
Strengths and Weaknesses of Trend Analysis / 300
Causal Modeling / 300
Strengths and Weaknesses of Causal Modeling / 301
Overall Assessment of Quantitative Methods / 301
Considerations in Choosing the Right Method / 301
Best Practices in Forecasting Revenues / 302
Forecasting Is Not Perfect / 303
Conclusion / 304
About the Author / 304

Public Officials - Local and State Government Roles